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Start parcel-level diligence in North McKinney, Lavon, and central or east McKinney.

These three ZIPs combine useful recorded depth in the $350,000 to $575,000 research band with either strong recorded annualized community pace or unusually limited standing supply. Princeton belongs on the watch list because its recorded pace is strong, but its median price sits below the target band and current infrastructure capacity still needs parcel-level confirmation.

How I screened the corridor

Your constraint is not simply where growth is happening. It is where one community can reliably close 2 to 4 homes a month at $375,000 to $550,000 for several years. I screened the corridor using:

• Depth in the price band: recorded closings of homes built in 2022 or later and priced from $350,000 to $575,000.
• Per-community pace: the fastest and median recorded pace in each ZIP, because the target is a community rate rather than a ZIP total.
• Months of supply: active new listings in the band divided by monthly recorded sales in the band.
• Direction: pending-listing volume, days on market, price-cut share, and active-inventory change.
• Growth and pipeline: permits, population, income, and employment.
• Delivery risk: infrastructure timing, utility capacity, and current development standards.

Recorded sales cover homes built in 2022 or later and priced from $350,000 to $575,000 for the twelve months ending June 2026. Recent closings can still enter the record after the period ends, and community attribution is incomplete, so sales counts and community pace should be read as lower bounds. Median list price, pending inventory, and days on market are ZIP-level all-home series that include new and existing homes. Sources: RealTorch recorded listings and transactions, Realtor.com Research, U.S. Census Building Permits, and FRED.

Where demand is deepening

75071, North McKinney, shows the strongest recorded evidence for the business plan at scale. The data contains 272 recorded band closings, roughly 23 a month. Four attributed communities posted recorded annualized pace of at least 2 sales a month: Southridge at 4.5, Painted Tree at 4.2, Shaded Tree at 4.2, and Eastridge at 2.6. Average prices in those communities range from $403,000 to $491,000. Standing band supply is 6.4 months, and the median price per square foot for active new construction is about $214.

75166, Lavon, has the best pace-to-crowding balance. The ZIP recorded 135 band closings. Elevon posted a recorded annualized pace of 3.8 a month and Lakepointe reached 2.0, with 9.4 months of band supply. All-home active inventory is down 9.5 percent from a year earlier and all-home median days on market improved by 16 days. At a median of about $171 per square foot for active new construction, the target price supports more size than it does in McKinney.

75069, central and east McKinney, has very little standing new-home supply. The ZIP recorded 85 band closings against 7 active new listings in the band, or about one month of supply. The all-home median list price increased 16.3 percent from a year earlier. The land search should begin by testing whether an assemblable site and utility path exist at a basis that still supports the target price.

Collin County reached about 1.30 million residents in 2025, up 3.4 percent, with a $124,920 median household income. Denton County reached about 1.07 million residents with a $117,499 median household income. Collin employment was essentially flat from June 2025 to June 2026. That supports household formation and absorption, but not aggressive price escalation.

Where new supply already looks crowded

75409, Anna, has strong demand and too much standing supply. Average monthly pending-listing inventory increased 47.7 percent from a year earlier, but builders had already staged 202 active new listings in the band against 11.8 recorded band sales a month. That equals 17.1 months of supply, and the fastest attributed community posted a recorded annualized pace of 1.8 sales a month.

The same crowding test flags 75068, Little Elm, at 16.1 months of band supply; 75495, Van Alstyne, at 15.1 months with average monthly pending-listing inventory down 29.8 percent; 75454, Melissa, at 11.4 months; 75442, Farmersville, at 24 months; and 75058, Gunter, with 23 active band listings against one recorded band closing.

75407, Princeton, is a watch market rather than a rejection. Windmore posted the fastest recorded annualized attributed-community pace in the corridor at 5.4 sales a month, and the ZIP has 6.1 months of band supply. Princeton's residential building moratorium ended on November 30, 2025. Its $301,000 all-home median remains below the target band, so parcel diligence should verify current utility capacity, development standards, and whether a product can move into the $375,000 to $550,000 range. Princeton city update.

Frisco ZIPs 75033, 75034, 75035, and 75036, along with Prosper 75078, sit above the target price. Prosper's all-home median list price is about $818,000 and active new construction has a median of $257 per square foot. Frisco 75034 has an active new-construction median of about $363 per square foot. A $550,000 ceiling does not buy a competitive home in those submarkets.

Short list for parcel-level diligence

What could change the answer

The corridor is correcting. Collin County recorded 10,013 single-family units authorized in the twelve months ending June 2026, down from 13,396 in the prior period. Denton County authorizations declined 12.2 percent and Grayson County declined 12.5 percent. Lower permit activity could reduce future competition, but it also shows more cautious expectations.

Prices are drifting down across much of the corridor. Fifteen of the twenty-four screened ZIPs have a lower all-home median list price than a year earlier, and all-home price-cut share is near or above 50 percent in much of the corridor. A land basis that requires 2025 pricing needs to be retested.

Infrastructure timing can change a parcel before zoning does. Prosper and Celina have tied additional capacity planning to the Doe Branch wastewater expansion. Anna brought the Hurricane Creek plant online to stay ahead of growth. On every shortlisted parcel, the first diligence calls should confirm water, wastewater, roadway capacity, and delivery timing. Doe Branch expansion. Anna infrastructure report.

Road improvements change the effective market area. Collin County opened Outer Loop Segment 3C between the Dallas North Tollway and US 75 in November 2025. The DNT extension from US 380 to FM 428 is scheduled for late 2027, while the segment farther north has no committed opening date. The land plan should use access available when the homes will sell, not only access promised today.

Sources: RealTorch recorded listing and transaction data; Realtor.com Research; U.S. Census Building Permits; FRED; Collin County; and NTTA. Analysis prepared August 28, 2026.

Next step: run absorption modeling on a representative 2,400 square foot home at $455,000 in 75071 and 75166. That will show which price and feature set can support a 2.5 to 3 sale-per-month pace, which is the number that should set the land basis.

Test a 1,950 to 2,300 square foot single-story home around $385,000 to $435,000.

Across five North Dallas corridor ZIPs, this is the clearest product hypothesis in the observed market record. The strongest directly observed price-and-size cell was $400,000 to $450,000 at 2,200 to 2,499 square feet, with 226 price-observed closing records and 13 active listings.

The analysis includes 6,731 price-observed qualifying closing records, 945 active new or newer-construction listings, and 216 pending listings. Story count, garage count, and lot size are not complete on every record, so the recommendation is a position to test, not a finished plan.

The center of buyer activity

The average price-observed closing mix was $441,827 and 2,379 square feet. Current active competition averaged $482,555 and 2,507 square feet, placing the active mix about 9 percent above where buyers transacted in the observed sample.

Among records containing the relevant fields, the average closing was approximately 6,408 square feet of lot area, 3.9 bedrooms, 2.9 baths, and a two-car garage. Those attribute fields have lower coverage than price and square footage, so they narrow the test rather than settle it.

Where current supply is crowded

High-end detached product is taking a larger share of today's active inventory than it took in the observed closing sample. The same pattern appears in oversized homes, three-car garages, and expensive single-story product.

Where buyer depth appears stronger

Central and east McKinney, ZIP 75069, deserves a separate test. It contained 407 price-observed closing records against 13 active new homes, a depth index of 4.40. That may represent a real infill opportunity, or it may reflect scarce buildable land. The next step is a land-availability test.

Story count was known for 55.7 percent of closing records and 89.4 percent of active records. Garage count was known for about 55.2 percent of closings and 89.9 percent of active listings. Lot size was known for 60.9 percent of closings and 42.8 percent of active listings. Those differences make the direction useful, but they require a direct concept test.

Three product positions to test

1. Single story in the middle. Test 1,950 to 2,300 square feet, 3 to 4 bedrooms, 2 to 2.5 baths, a two-car garage, and a 6,000 to 7,500 square foot lot at roughly $385,000 to $435,000. The cheapest useful test is to show one 2,150 square foot single-story concept and one 2,400 square foot two-story concept at the same price and measure which one buyers choose.

2. Two story at the top of the band. Test 2,850 to 3,150 square feet, 4 to 5 bedrooms, 3 to 3.5 baths, a two-car garage, and a 6,000 to 7,000 square foot lot at roughly $490,000 to $545,000. Start with furnished versions of the closest existing plans and review them with salespeople who have recently written contracts in the corridor before commissioning new architecture.

3. Central McKinney infill. Test 2,150 to 2,400 square feet, 4 bedrooms, 2.5 to 3 baths, and 5,200 to 6,500 square foot lots in 75069 at roughly $375,000 to $425,000. The cheapest useful test is to identify platted unbuilt inventory and confirm infill standards, utilities, and lot availability with McKinney before developing the product further.

What the market supports, and what it does not decide

The market evidence can narrow the product, price, size, story, garage, and lot hypotheses. It does not establish land basis, finished-lot cost, achievable construction cost, setbacks, utility capacity, plan fit, margin, or the sales pace a particular builder can capture.

Recommended next step: run the equal-price concept test for the single-story position, then screen the land and cost conditions that would have to be true for it to work. If the preference and economics do not hold together, move to the upper-middle two-story position without drawing a new production plan.

Source: RealTorch listing data across five North Dallas ZIPs. Price-observed qualifying closing records are dated August 2024 through March 2026; current active and pending inventory comes from the July 2026 refresh. The depth index uses relative shares and does not depend on an assumed monthly pace. Analysis prepared August 28, 2026.

Open between $392,000 and $412,000 all-in. Target a $372,000 to $402,000 settlement.

The representative subject is a 2,150 square foot, single-story detached home in ZIP 75071 with four bedrooms, two and a half baths, a two-car garage, and a 6,600 square foot lot. The standalone model centers at $387,106 at settlement.

A master-planned community with meaningful amenities can support a different position. Holding the home constant, the model centers near $437,417, a 13 percent premium. The opening price should follow the actual community strategy rather than averaging those two positions together.

The evidence behind the range

Within 75071, the adjusted settlement median is $396,977. Across all five ZIPs, the 75th percentile of achieved pricing is $424,612. That is the practical ceiling for a standalone opening unless the home, lot, or community creates a difference the buyer can see.

Where the comparable homes are

Three prices to test

$399,900 is the cleanest first live test. It sits close to the ZIP-level adjusted settlement median, preserves room to respond to incentives, and does not ask the market to support the upper-quartile ceiling before the product has earned it.

Translate all-in value into base price

The market establishes the all-in value. The base price depends on how much buyers are expected to add through options and lot premiums.

What I need before this becomes a release price

• Finished lot cost and the lot-premium schedule.
• Direct construction cost for the 2,150 square foot subject.
• The required gross-margin floor.
• Expected options revenue and any opening incentive.
• The community amenity position: standalone value or amenity master plan.

Once those inputs are known, the all-in market range can be converted into a release base price without using cost alone to set the market price.

Source: RealTorch recorded new-home settlement, active, and pending listing data across five North Dallas corridor ZIP codes. The subject-adjustment model controls for home size, lot size, story count, bedrooms, baths, garage, age, completion status, days on market, incentives, and community position. Analysis prepared August 29, 2026.

The lot-width decision is really a land-price decision.

The lender moved the file forward and asked four specific credit questions. The connected company workspace showed no new teammate update, so the plan-fit, setback, yield, and geotechnical work remained open. I re-ran the downside and financing cases, checked the cash schedule, updated the decision record, and prepared the lender reply for approval.

The downside case returns the capital and nothing else

At 2.0 net sales a month, an $18,000 incentive, 5% construction inflation, and a 9.0% all-in rate, time consumes the profit even though direct gross margin remains positive.

Gross margin

17.0%

Net profit

-$40,712

Peak equity

$2.50M

Peak capital

$6.87M

Last closing

33 months

The cash schedule also exposed a modeling issue: its first 14 months run cash to zero, so the $250,000 minimum-cash floor sits on top of peak equity rather than inside it. The practical base liquidity requirement is about $2.92 million.

Both lot-width branches point back to the seller

Who owns the next actions

I updated the record and prepared the reply

This is a live Atlas run using an illustrative North Dallas project workspace built from real market analysis. The project email and operating records were created for this demonstration; private identities and institution details have been removed. Analysis prepared August 29, 2026.